Correlation between the Level of Social Distancing and Activity of Influenza Epidemic or COVID-19 Pandemic: A Subway Use-Based Assessment

Abstract

Social distancing is an effective measure to mitigate the spread of novel viral infections in the absence of antiviral agents and insufficient vaccine supplies. Subway utilization density may reflect social activity and the degree of social distancing in the general population.; This study aimed to evaluate the correlations between subway use density and the activity of the influenza epidemic or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic using a time-series regression method. The subway use-based social distancing score (S-SDS) was calculated using the weekly ridership of 11 major subway stations. The temporal association of S-SDS with influenza-like illness (ILI) rates or the COVID-19 pandemic activity was analyzed using structural vector autoregressive modeling and the Granger causality (GC) test. During three influenza seasons (2017-2020), the time-series regression presented a significant causality from S-SDS to ILI (p = 0.0484). During the COVID-19 pandemic in January 2020, S-SDS had been suppressed at a level similar to or below the average of the previous four years. In contrast to the ILI rate, there was a negative correlation between COVID-19 activity and S-SDS. GC analysis revealed a negative causal relationship between COVID-19 and S-SDS (p = 0.0098).; S-SDS showed a significant time-series association with the ILI rate but not with COVID-19 activity. When public transportation use is sufficiently suppressed, additional social mobility restrictions are unlikely to significantly affect COVID-19 pandemic activity. It would be more important to strengthen universal mask-wearing and detailed public health measures focused on risk activities, particularly in enclosed spaces.