The Possible Impact of Nationwide Vaccination on Outcomes of the COVID-19 Epidemic in North Korea: A Modelling Study

Abstract

Background: The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) had successfully suppressed the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic via border closures. However, a rapid surge in incidence was reported due to the spread of the omicron variant (B.1.1.529), leading to a national emergency declaration in May 2022. Moreover, with the lack of vaccine accessibility and medical facilities, it is unclear how the disease burden may be exacerbated. Despite the limited epidemiological data, we aimed to project the COVID-19 transmissions in North Korea and quantify the potential impact of nationwide vaccination, comparing epidemiological outcomes via scenario analysis. Methods: A discrete-time deterministic compartmental model was used. The parameters were calibrated using empirical data. Numerical simulations incorporated nationwide COVID-19 vaccination into the proposed model with various asymptomatic proportions. Results: Our model suggested that the stringent public health and social measures (PHSMs) reduced the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmissibility by more than 80% in North Korea. Projections that explicitly incorporated vaccination indicated that nationwide vaccination would be necessary to suppress a huge resurgence in both COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations after the stringent PHSMs are eased. Moreover, vaccinating more than 80% of the population with two doses may keep the peak prevalence of hospitalizations below 1,500, averting more than 40,000 hospitalizations across all scenarios. Conclusion: Nationwide vaccination would be essential to suppress the prevalence of COVID-19 hospitalizations in North Korea after the stringent PHSMs are lifted, especially in the case of a small asymptomatic proportion.