A long lead time forecast model applying an ensemble approach for managing the great Karun multi-reservoir systemopen access
- Authors
- Mostaghimzadeh, Ehsan; Ashrafi, Seyed Mohammad; Adib, Arash; Geem, Zong Woo
- Issue Date
- Jun-2023
- Publisher
- SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
- Keywords
- Runoff forecast; Water resources management; Prediction lead time; Wavelet transformation; Artificial neural network
- Citation
- APPLIED WATER SCIENCE, v.13, no.6
- Journal Title
- APPLIED WATER SCIENCE
- Volume
- 13
- Number
- 6
- URI
- https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/gachon/handle/2020.sw.gachon/88048
- DOI
- 10.1007/s13201-023-01924-3
- ISSN
- 2190-5487
- Abstract
- Flow prediction is regarded as a major computational process in strategic water resources planning. Prediction's lead time has an inverse relationship with results' accuracy and certainty. This research studies the impact of climate-atmospheric indices on surface runoff predictions with a long lead time. To this end, the correlation of 36 long-distance climate indices with runoff was examined at 10 key nodes of the Great Karun multi-reservoir system in Iran, and indices with higher correlation are divided into 4 different groups. Then, using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Ensemble Learning to combine the input variables, flow is predicted in 6-month horizons, and results are compared with observed values. To assess the impact of extending the prediction lead time, results from the proposed model are compared with those of a monthly prediction model. The performed comparison shows that using an ensemble approach improves the final results significantly. Moreover, Tropical Pacific SST EOF, Caribbean SST, and Nino1 + 2 indices are found to be influential parameters to the basin's inflow. It is observed that the performance of the prediction process varies in different hydrological conditions and the best results are obtained for dry seasons.
- Files in This Item
- There are no files associated with this item.
- Appears in
Collections - IT융합대학 > 에너지IT학과 > 1. Journal Articles
![qrcode](https://api.qrserver.com/v1/create-qr-code/?size=55x55&data=https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/gachon/handle/2020.sw.gachon/88048)
Items in ScholarWorks are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.