Predictive Factors on the Incidence of Heart Failure in Patients with Ischemic Heart Disease: Using a 10-Year Population-Based Korea National Health Insurance Cohort Data

Abstract

Early risk stratification and preventative strategies are required in patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD) to prevent heart failure (HF). We aimed to investigate the rate of progression to HF and to investigate the factors predicting the development of HF in a population with IHD for 10 years. A descriptive study was conducted using Korea National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort (NHI-NSC) data (2005-2015). Among the patients diagnosed with IHD for the first time in 2005-2006, 2271 men and 2037 women who responded to the health check-up survey were finally selected. Cox Proportional Hazard regression analyses and the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were used. HF incidence rates were 5.1% in men and 8.0% in women. The mean duration of transition to HF was 4.85 ± 2.73 years in men and 4.73 ± 2.73 years in women. The non-incidence rate of HF was higher in men than in women (Log-rank test, p = 0.0003). Bivariate analyses showed that older age, prevalence of hypertension and diabetes, less alcohol, and lower physical exercise were associated with the incidence of HF in both men and women. Multivariate analyses found that HF incidence in aged subjects ≥70 years was 1.46 times higher in men and 1.44 times higher in women compared to those in their 30 s (p < 0.001). Prevalence of hypertension reduced the incidence of HF by 0.78 and 0.87 for men and women, respectively. The prevalence of diabetes increased 1.23 times only in men. These findings suggest that special attention such as periodic counseling and education is needed to prevent progression to HF in elderly and diabetic patients during follow-up after IHD.