Metapopulation model using commuting flow for national spread of the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus in the Republic of Korea

Abstract

We study the spatial-temporal pattern of the spread of the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus using a metapopulation model linked by commuting flow based on the reported influenza cases during the early stages of the epidemic in the Republic of Korea. The spatial heterogeneities, such as the local reproductive number and peak time, are investigated at province level. Furthermore, we discuss the effect of early intervention strategies, isolation and commuting restrictions, on the reduction of incidence at each province level. A major finding of this study is that early intervention at the source area of infection is more effective than interventions at the commuting-hub areas if the cost is limited.