일변량 시계열 모형 비교를 통한 독도관광 수요예측
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | 황경후 | - |
dc.contributor.author | 김원표 | - |
dc.contributor.author | 정철 | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-07-16T00:19:04Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2022-07-16T00:19:04Z | - |
dc.date.created | 2021-05-13 | - |
dc.date.issued | 2015-02 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1229-0424 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/hanyang/handle/2021.sw.hanyang/157913 | - |
dc.description.abstract | The purpose of this study is to find out the method appropriate for the forecasting of traveler demand using time series model and efficient operation in Dok-do office. Time series monthly data for the investigation were collected ranging from Apr. 2005 to Mar. 2013. A total of 96 observations were used for data analysis. Research findings showed that the multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,11)(1,1,0)12 model was the most appropriate among models. The number of traveler in Dok-do was expected to continually rise and surpass 25 million in 2015. Based on the predictive results of time series model, the improvement issues and suggestions of Dok-do tour are as following: Firstly, in order to maintain the Dok-do traveler, we need to improve coastal ferry route and facilities. Secondly, in order to expand the tourism revenue by maintaining the Dok-do traveler demands, it is necessary to carry out policies to maintain and develop Dok-do tourism products. | - |
dc.language | 한국어 | - |
dc.language.iso | ko | - |
dc.publisher | (사)한국관광레저학회 | - |
dc.title | 일변량 시계열 모형 비교를 통한 독도관광 수요예측 | - |
dc.title.alternative | Demand Forecasting of Dok-do Tourism using Comparison of Univariate Time Series | - |
dc.type | Article | - |
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor | 정철 | - |
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitation | 관광레저연구, v.27, no.2, pp.59 - 77 | - |
dc.relation.isPartOf | 관광레저연구 | - |
dc.citation.title | 관광레저연구 | - |
dc.citation.volume | 27 | - |
dc.citation.number | 2 | - |
dc.citation.startPage | 59 | - |
dc.citation.endPage | 77 | - |
dc.type.rims | ART | - |
dc.identifier.kciid | ART001964540 | - |
dc.description.journalClass | 2 | - |
dc.description.isOpenAccess | N | - |
dc.description.journalRegisteredClass | kci | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | 시계열 | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | 수요예측 | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | 계절모형 | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | 독도관광 | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | 도서관광 | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Time series | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Demand Forecast | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Seasonal ARIMA model | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Dok-do tourism | - |
dc.subject.keywordAuthor | Island Tourism | - |
dc.identifier.url | http://www.riss.kr/search/detail/DetailView.do?p_mat_type=1a0202e37d52c72d&control_no=4916891a6634e6586aae8a972f9116fb | - |
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