일변량 시계열 모형 비교를 통한 독도관광 수요예측Demand Forecasting of Dok-do Tourism using Comparison of Univariate Time Series
- Other Titles
- Demand Forecasting of Dok-do Tourism using Comparison of Univariate Time Series
- Authors
- 황경후; 김원표; 정철
- Issue Date
- Feb-2015
- Publisher
- (사)한국관광레저학회
- Keywords
- 시계열; 수요예측; 계절모형; 독도관광; 도서관광; Time series; Demand Forecast; Seasonal ARIMA model; Dok-do tourism; Island Tourism
- Citation
- 관광레저연구, v.27, no.2, pp.59 - 77
- Indexed
- KCI
- Journal Title
- 관광레저연구
- Volume
- 27
- Number
- 2
- Start Page
- 59
- End Page
- 77
- URI
- https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/hanyang/handle/2021.sw.hanyang/157913
- ISSN
- 1229-0424
- Abstract
- The purpose of this study is to find out the method appropriate for the forecasting of traveler demand using time series model and efficient operation in Dok-do office.
Time series monthly data for the investigation were collected ranging from Apr.
2005 to Mar. 2013. A total of 96 observations were used for data analysis. Research findings showed that the multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,11)(1,1,0)12 model was the most appropriate among models. The number of traveler in Dok-do was expected to continually rise and surpass 25 million in 2015. Based on the predictive results of time series model, the improvement issues and suggestions of Dok-do tour are as following: Firstly, in order to maintain the Dok-do traveler, we need to improve coastal ferry route and facilities. Secondly, in order to expand the tourism revenue by maintaining the Dok-do traveler demands, it is necessary to carry out policies to maintain and develop Dok-do tourism products.
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