일변량 시계열 모형 비교를 통한 독도관광 수요예측

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to find out the method appropriate for the forecasting of traveler demand using time series model and efficient operation in Dok-do office. Time series monthly data for the investigation were collected ranging from Apr. 2005 to Mar. 2013. A total of 96 observations were used for data analysis. Research findings showed that the multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,11)(1,1,0)12 model was the most appropriate among models. The number of traveler in Dok-do was expected to continually rise and surpass 25 million in 2015. Based on the predictive results of time series model, the improvement issues and suggestions of Dok-do tour are as following: Firstly, in order to maintain the Dok-do traveler, we need to improve coastal ferry route and facilities. Secondly, in order to expand the tourism revenue by maintaining the Dok-do traveler demands, it is necessary to carry out policies to maintain and develop Dok-do tourism products.