Predicting TV Audience of International Sporting Events in Korea: The Case of 2006 FIFA World Cup

Abstract

In this paper, we use the Korean viewership data for the 2006 FIFA World Cup games to establish a model to predict the TV ratings of big international sporting events. We focus on the ex ante determinants of viewership that can be taken into consideration by the time the TV commercial air time is sold. The results show that the TV ratings of each game can be predicted very accurately in a simple model employing several predetermined variables. The participation of the national team is the single most important factor, adding a whopping 47 percentage points to the viewership on average. The local time of the day for a live broadcast is the next most important factor.