R&D 프로젝트 투자 의사결정을 위한 실물옵션 의사결정 나무 모델Real Option Decision Tree Models for R&D Project Investment
- Other Titles
- Real Option Decision Tree Models for R&D Project Investment
- Authors
- 최경현; 조대명; 정영기
- Issue Date
- Dec-2011
- Publisher
- 대한산업공학회
- Keywords
- R& D project; real options; decision tree
- Citation
- 산업공학(IE interfaces), v.24, no.4, pp.408 - 419
- Indexed
- KCI
- Journal Title
- 산업공학(IE interfaces)
- Volume
- 24
- Number
- 4
- Start Page
- 408
- End Page
- 419
- URI
- https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/hanyang/handle/2021.sw.hanyang/166723
- DOI
- 10.7232/IEIF.2011.24.4.408
- ISSN
- 1225-0996
- Abstract
- R&D is a foundation for new business chance and productivity improvement leading to enormous expense and a long-term multi-step process. During the R&D process, decision-makers are confused due to the various future uncertainties that influence economic and technical success of the R&D projects. For these reasons, several decision-making models for R&D project investment have been suggested; they are based on traditional methods such as Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Decision Tree Analysis (DTA) and Real Option Analysis (ROA) or some fusion forms of the traditional methods. However, almost of the models have constraints in practical use owing to limits on application, procedural complexity and incomplete reflection of the uncertainties. In this study, to make the constraints minimized, we propose a new model named Real Option Decision Tree Model which is a conceptual combination form of ROA and DTA. With this model, it is possible for the decision-makers to simulate the project value applying the uncertainties onto the decision making nodes.
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