A forecast simulation analysis of the next-generation DVD market based on consumer preference data
- Authors
- Lee, Jongsu; Choi, Jae Young; Cho, Youngsang
- Issue Date
- Mar-2011
- Publisher
- WILEY-BLACKWELL PUBLISHING
- Keywords
- Bayesian mixed logit; Conjoint analysis; De facto standard; Market share simulation; Next-generation DVD
- Citation
- INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CONSUMER STUDIES, v.35, no.4, pp.448 - 457
- Indexed
- SSCI
SCOPUS
- Journal Title
- INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CONSUMER STUDIES
- Volume
- 35
- Number
- 4
- Start Page
- 448
- End Page
- 457
- URI
- https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/hanyang/handle/2021.sw.hanyang/168803
- DOI
- 10.1111/j.1470-6431.2010.00958.x
- ISSN
- 1470-6423
- Abstract
- Just as standards wars over formats had characterized VCRs upon introduction to the market, the next-generation DVD standards war between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD lasted 6 years before Blu-Ray won the contest. Beginning with stated preference data drawn from a structured conjoint survey conducted before Blu-Ray became the de facto standard of the next-generation DVD format, we estimate consumer preferences on digital video players. A Bayesian mixed-logit model is used and market share simulations are conducted under various scenarios based on the estimated parameters from Bayesian mixed-logit model to surmise the future South Korean digital video-player market. Results indicate that consumers feel that network size and title availability are more important than hardware-related facets of the product, such as definition and storage capacity. The level of title availability and price of the Blu-Ray player for Blu-Ray's dominance over DVD will dramatically vary by the penetration rate of DVD players.
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