수도권 개발지 수요예측모형

Abstract

In order to maintain the stability of the urban land market with strong regulations like in Korea, the government has to make policy decisions in a timely manner to promote the supply of improved land ahead of the market demand. Therefore, the estimation of future demand for urban land in a regional level and its distributional plan are crucial tasks for the government. This study tries to develop an estimation model of urban land demand in the Seoul metropolitan area(SMA). The concept of the model is based on the allometric theory, which relates the growth rate of a part with that of other part of an organism. The estimation model has two components. First, we estimate the relationship between the area of urban land and the total area of residential space. Second, per capita residential space is regressed with socio-economic variables. Using the results from the two models, we estimate future urban land demand by the year of 2030. The estimation results show that a considerable amount of additional supply of improved land(60~80%) is required by 2030 in the SMA.