Detailed Information

Cited 11 time in webofscience Cited 12 time in scopus
Metadata Downloads

Ultra-low fertility in South Korea: The role of the tempo effectopen access

Authors
Yoo, Sam HyunSobotka, Tomas
Issue Date
Feb-2018
Publisher
Max-Planck Institute for Demographic Research/Max-Planck-institut fur Demografische Forschung
Citation
Demographic Research, v.38, no.1, pp.549 - 576
Indexed
SSCI
SCOPUS
Journal Title
Demographic Research
Volume
38
Number
1
Start Page
549
End Page
576
URI
https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/hanyang/handle/2021.sw.hanyang/17781
DOI
10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.22
ISSN
1435-9871
Abstract
Background: The total fertility rate (TFR) in South Korea has fallen below 1.3 since 2001. The role of the rapid shift toward a late-childbearing pattern in driving Korean fertility decline to this ultra-low level has been little explored until now. Objective: We provide an in-depth analysis of period fertility trends by birth order in South Korea from 1981 to 2015, when the period TFR fell from 2.57 to extremely low levels. Methods: We combine census and birth registration data to estimate period and cohort fertility indicators by birth order. We compare changes in conventional TFR with tempo- and parity-adjusted total fertility rate (TFRp*) and their birth-order-specific components. Results: The tempo effect linked to the shift toward delayed childbearing has had a strong and persistent negative influence on period TFRs in South Korea since the early 1980s. Without the shift to later childbearing, period fertility rates in South Korea would consistently stay higher and decline more gradually, reaching a threshold of very low fertility, 1.5, only in 2014. The postponement of childbearing and the resulting tempo effect were strongest in the early 2000s, when Korean TFR reached the lowest levels. More recently, Korean fertility has been characterized by a diminishing tempo effect and falling first and second birth rates. This trend marks a break with the previous pattern of almost universal fertility and a strong two-child family model. Contribution: Our study demonstrates the importance of the tempo effect in explaining the shift to ultra-low fertility in South Korea and in East Asia.
Files in This Item
Appears in
Collections
서울 사회과학대학 > 서울 사회학과 > 1. Journal Articles

qrcode

Items in ScholarWorks are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.

Related Researcher

Researcher Yoo, Sam Hyun photo

Yoo, Sam Hyun
COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES (DEPARTMENT OF SOCIOLOGY)
Read more

Altmetrics

Total Views & Downloads

BROWSE