Prognosis of LED lumen degradation using Bayesian optimized neural network approach

Abstract

Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs) are among the most widely used electronic devices for everyday lighting applications due to their durability over incandescent lamps. However, there are no standardized approaches to predict the reliability of LEDs as they are manufactured and tested as per the user requirements and applications. This dramatically limits developing generic prognostic algorithms pertaining to predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of LEDs. In this study, we propose a Bayesian optimized neural network approach to predict the lumen degradation trends of LEDs. The proposed method does not require an accurate physical model representing the LED degradation behavior and does not require a large amount of degradation data. We have used a particle filter algorithm to train a simple two-layer feedforward neural network model and use the trained model to predict the lumen degradation of LEDs. Also, the weight decay issues commonly encountered in particle filter algorithm are addressed using three different resampling strategies and particle roughening method. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Relative Accuracy (RA) were used as the prognostic metrics.