Southern Ocean Control of 2°C Global Warming in Climate Modelsopen access
- Authors
- Shin, So-Jung; Yeh, Sang-Wook; An, Soon-Il; Keenlyside, Noel; Xie, Shang-Ping; Park, Jae-Heung
- Issue Date
- Jan-2023
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons Inc
- Keywords
- Antarctic sea ice; low level cloud amount feedback; Paris agreement; southern ocean condition
- Citation
- Earth's Future, v.11, no.1, pp.1 - 15
- Indexed
- SCIE
SCOPUS
- Journal Title
- Earth's Future
- Volume
- 11
- Number
- 1
- Start Page
- 1
- End Page
- 15
- URI
- https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/hanyang/handle/2021.sw.hanyang/187606
- DOI
- 10.1029/2022EF003212
- ISSN
- 2328-4277
- Abstract
- Global warming will soon reach the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5°C/2°C temperature increase above pre-industrial levels. Under a business-as-usual scenario, the time to reach these targets varies widely among climate models. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6, we show that a 2°C global warming is determined by Southern Ocean (SO) state closely tied with a low-level cloud (LLC) amount feedback strength during reference (1861–1900) period; climate models with cold SO tend to accompany more low-level cloudiness and Antarctic sea ice concentration due to a strong LLC amount feedback. Consequently, initially cold SO models tend to simulate a fast global warming by absorbing more downward shortwave radiation compared to initially warm SO models because more LLC disappears due to a strong LLC amount feedback during the 2°C rise. Our results demonstrate that climate models that correctly simulate initial SO state can improve 2°C warming projections with reduced uncertainties. © 2022 The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.
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