몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 PF사업 공모지침서 평가배점에 관한 연구

Abstract

Competition PF project is a major role in real estate development project since 2001, however,due to the global economic crisis in 2008, this PF project is undergoing difficulties such as the project is delayed and new project postponed indefinitely. Not only disputation of reduction in acquisition and registration tax, financial condition,institutional condition, social economic condition but also, there are problem with structure or method of business. Despite of many related studies on progress now, there are no studies for structural issues fundamentally at all. Therefore, this study shows analysis by simulating factors of allocating evaluation based on competition PF's subscription guide. The fundamental problem is unsafe and irregular business composition and induce competition in land value makes feasibility become worse. In the early PF project, the government provided to commercial land with low price by competitive bid to encourage private participation. However, it brought some problems that causing only special participants get privilege. So, the government decided to reflect land value to choose bidder. Due to the this system, just few difference in evaluation grade of business plan between 1st ranked participant and 2nd ranked participant makes to choose preferred bidder. In conclusion, this system can be caused excessive land value formation in pertinent area. This study has researched the issues through analyzing evaluation factors in subscription guide that in spite of high graded business plan, preferred bidder choose by land value. As a result, this study shows the probability of selecting preferred bidder can be deduced by extending number of participants, departmentalizing evaluation grade, combinating evaluation factors through the simulating.