Macroeconomic influences on cross-border e-commerce: a comparative market and product-level analysis of the Republic of Korea's imports from the U.S. and China

Abstract

With the rapid expansion of cross-border e-commerce (CBEC), understanding macroeconomic influences on international trade has become increasingly important. This study analyzes the impact of macroeconomic variables and consumer sentiment on the Republic of Korea's CBEC imports from the U.S. and China, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to capture both short- and long-term dynamics. The analysis includes total imports and four key product categories (leather goods, cosmetics, electronics, and apparel) allowing for a market-level and product-level comparison. Empirical findings reveal that U.S. imports increase when the U.S. dollar depreciates and inflation declines, reflecting classical demand responses to price changes. In contrast, Chinese imports remain stable or even increase despite the appreciation of the Chinese yuan, due to structurally lower product prices. Consumer sentiment also plays distinct roles: decreasing sentiment in Republic of Korea increases U.S. imports, reflecting cost-conscious purchasing, whereas increasing sentiment drives Chinese imports higher, indicating broader expansion of consumption. Electronics imports show market-specific dynamics, whereas cosmetics respond similarly across both markets, highlighting product-specific sensitivity to price and brand rather than market origin. This study offers a novel contribution by integrating macroeconomic and psychological variables within a unified time-series framework, revealing asymmetries in CBEC behavior across countries and product types. The findings provide theoretical insights into global e-commerce behavior and offer practical implications for firms and policymakers developing tailored CBEC strategies in diverse economic environments.