재건축 가능성에 따른 서울시 권역 간 아파트 가격차이 비교 연구

Abstract

본 연구에서는 건축연령에 따른 서울시 재건축 아파트 가격변화가 권역별 형성배경에 따른 입지 및 기반시설의 수준차이에 의해 내재된 영향인지 권역별 무차별적으로 영향을 미치는지 확인하고자 건축연령에 따른 권역별 아파트 가격 변화의 차이를 실증분석하였다. 장제환·최창규(2024)의 연구에서 밝혔듯이 시간이경과할수록 건물의 가치는 사라지고 토지의 가치만 남는 재건축사업에서 건축연령에 따른 가격변화를 효과적으로 설명하는 종속변수로 대지지분당 실거래가격(이하 대지지분당 가격)을 준용하였다. 기존 연구에서 고려하지 않았던 사업추진단계 변수를 추가하고 서울시 전체 아파트를 5개 권역으로 구분하여 비교분석함으로써 연구범위를 확장하였다. 이를 통해 아파트 공급 정책의시공간적 특성과 변화과정을 거치면서 형성된 권역별 특성이 실제 아파트 가격변화의 차이에 어떠한 영향을 주고 있는지 확인하고자 하였다. 더 나아가 재건축 연한이 도래하고 있는 시점에서아파트 생애주기를 고려하여 민간부분에서는 아파트 재건축추진의사결정에 의미 있는 단서를 제공하고 아파트들의 재건축 가능성과 체계적인 관리를 위한 정책수립의 필요성을 판단할 근거를제공하고자 한다.

This study empirically analyzed the effect of redevelopment expectations on the price per land share according to the building age of each Seoul area. In particular, it was intended to check whether the building age effect was indiscriminately reflected according to the characteristics of the region where the supply period and supply scale of apartments were different. For this study, 44,828 transaction cases were divided into southeast, southwest, city-center, and northeast regions; multiple regression analysis by region was conducted; and the difference was verified through variance analysis. Based on the analysis, first, as stated in previous studies, it was confirmed that the price per land share according to the building age was nonlinear in all areas. Prices fell as the building age elapsed. After a certain point, prices rebounded owing to expectations for improved residential environments and economic benefits from redevelopment. Second, it was confirmed that the change in price per land share according to the building age had an indiscriminate effect between areas with similar supply sizes and apartment supply timing. Third, it was confirmed that the price effect according to the building age appeared differently between the areas where the supply period of the apartment and the supply scale were different. Through additional analysis of variance and post-test, it can be observed that the difference in regression coefficient values can be divided into three groups: southeast / city-center / southwest & northeast. Based on this study, the price effect according to the building age varies by timing and size of supply rather than by region. It has been revealed that similar supply timing and supply scale of apartments are characteristics that affect areas indiscriminately regardless of the region. Furthermore, the necessity of establishing a differentiated redevelopment policy was proposed considering the characteristics of each region with similar development background and formation period.