세종시 기능적 영향권의 시·공간적 변화 패턴과 영향요인 분석

Abstract

본 연구의 목적은 크게 세 가지로 구분된다. 첫째, 인구이동 및 통행 O-D 자료를 바탕으로 세종시와 실질적 상호작용을 보이는 ‘기능적 영향권’을 도출한다. 둘째, 세종시 출범 이후 약 10년 간의 시계열 자료와 시공간큐브 분석을 활용하여, 기능적 영향권 내에서 인구와 종사자 변화의 시·공간적 패턴을 규명한다. 셋째, 이러한 시·공간적 패턴에 영향을 미치는 요인들의 상대적 중요도를 비교 분석한다. 특히, 지역의 내생적 특성과 광역적접근성 요인이 인구와 종사자의 성장패턴에 각각 어떻게 작용하는지를 통계모형을 통해 검증한다. 궁극적으로는 성장거점 방식의 도시개발이 주변지역에 미치는복합적인 영향을 종합하고, 그 결과를 바탕으로 향후 국토균형발전 및 지역상생정책 수립에 대한 기초적·실증적 근거를 제공한다.

This study examines the differential spatio-temporal effects associated with establishment of Sejong City on its surrounding areas from the perspective of Growth Pole Theory. This theory posits that a growth pole can simultaneously generate 'spread effects' and 'backwash effects' on its periphery. Since its launch in 2012, Sejong City has experienced rapid growth driven by the relocation of central government agencies, inducing significant changes in the population and industrial structures of surrounding areas. Accordingly, this research assesses the sustainability of new city development under the growth pole model by analyzing the spatio-temporal patterns of change within Sejong City and its functional region. Methodologically, the study first defines the functional region using population migration and Origin-Destination (O-D) travel data. It then employs a Space-Time Cube to identify spatio-temporal patterns of change in population and employment. Finally, fixed-effects models are estimated, controlling for municipality-specific heterogeneity, to analyze factors associated with these patterns. The analysis reveals a clear divergence in the spatial drivers of population growth and employment growth. Population growth patterns were primarily explained by local endogenous factors, such as proximity to new development sites and the ratio of deteriorated housing, while regional accessibility showed no significant effect. Conversely, employment growth patterns were primarily driven by regional network factors (specifically accessibility to KTX stations and distance to Sejong City) along with structural factors (like the existing manufacturing base and aging levels). Notably, the importance of the KTX axis, rather than the traditional Gyeongbu axis, was highlighted for employment growth. The significance of this study lies in its identification of these differentiated growth mechanisms within the functional region, providing empirical evidence on how the effects of a growth pole interact complexly with local characteristics and regional network structures. These findings provide an empirical basis for policies on balanced national development and regional co-existence. Furthermore, they offer significant implications for future urban planning, highlighting the need to simultaneously manage both the positive impacts and adverse side effects of growth pole strategies