FMEA 도입 공동주택 공사비 상승 영향요인 분석 및 개산견적 신뢰도 향상 방법 제안

Abstract

아파트 건설사업의 공사비 초과는 거시경제 요인만으로 설명되지 않는 지속적 과제이다. 본 연구는 재료비·노무비 상승과 초기단계 비용추정의 불확실성을 체계적으로 평가하기 위해 FMEA 기법을 적용하였다. 13개 프로젝트와 선행연구를 통해 33개 리스크 요인을 도출하고, 전문가 평가와 검증을 통해 우선순위와 대응방안을 제시하였다. 그 결과 노무비·재료비 상승, 물가조항 누락 등 주요 리스크가 조기 관리 효과를 입증하였으며, 이는 초기단계에서의 구조적 리스크 분석이 공사비 예측의 신뢰성과 사전적 비용관리 효율성을 향상시킴을 보여준다.

Cost overruns in apartment housing construction projects continue to be a persistent issue that cannot be fully explained by macroeconomicchanges. External factors like rising material and labor costs, along with internal uncertainties during early-stage estimation, often lead to costincreases. Early estimates usually depend on limited design information and subjective judgment, lacking a structured approach to evaluaterisks. To address this gap, this study applies Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) to identify, measure, and prioritize risks of costescalation based on three criteria: frequency of occurrence, difficulty of detection, and severity of impact. Thirty-three risk factors wereidentified from previous studies and 13 completed apartment housing projects. These factors were then reviewed and ranked by 90 industryexperts. Using the prioritized risks, mitigation strategies were developed and validated by 20 cost estimation professionals. The results showthat major risks can be reduced through structured early-stage interventions. Key risks include labor and material cost increases, omission ofescalation clauses, and estimation errors. The overall average Risk Priority Number (RPN) dropped by more than 60 percent, withimprovements reaching 78 percent for the most critical items. This evidence highlights that incorporating structured risk analysis into earlyestimates enhances risk identification and mitigation, leading to more stable and reliable cost estimates in apartment projects.