Escaping From Populism: Firm Export Intensity and the Role of Political Strategy in Emerging Economies

Abstract

The surge of populism is an increasing trend globally, yet the consequences of populism at the firm level have not been fully analysed. In this paper, we investigate the impact of populism on firm export intensity by analysing a sample of firm-level panel data including 17,757 firms across 33 emerging economies. In drawing from institutional escapism, we find that greater levels of populism are associated with higher levels of firm export intensity, as firms might view exports as an attractive 'escape' mechanism to mitigate the increasing uncertainty in their domestic market. We also find that this relationship is weakened by the level of democracy and strengthened by the extent of investment in political ties with government officials.