Validation of prognostic scores to predict short-term mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Abstract

Background and Aim The aim of this study was to validate the chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment score (CLIF-SOFAs), CLIF consortium organ failure score (CLIF-C OFs), CLIF-C acute-on-chronic liver failure score (CLIF-C ACLFs), and CLIF-C acute decompensation score in Korean chronic liver disease patients with acute deterioration.

Methods Acute-on-chronic liver failure was defined by either the Asian Pacific Association for the study of the Liver ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) or CLIF-C criteria. The diagnostic performances for short-term mortality were compared by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

Results Among a total of 1470 patients, 252 patients were diagnosed with ACLF according to the CLIF-C (197 patients) or AARC definition (95 patients). As the ACLF grades increased, the survival rates became significantly lower. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic of the CLIF-SOFAs, CLIF-C OFs, and CLIF-C ACLFs were significantly higher than those of the Child–Pugh, model for end-stage liver disease, and model for end-stage liver disease-Na scores in ACLF patients according to the CLIF-C definition (all P < 0.05), but there were no significant differences in patients without ACLF or in patients with ACLF according to the AARC definition. The CLIF-SOFAs, CLIF-C OFs, and CLIF-C ACLFs had higher specificities with a fixed sensitivity than liver specific scores in ACLF patients according to the CLIF-C definition, but not in ACLF patients according to the AARC definition.

Conclusions The CLIF-SOFAs, CLIF-C OFs, and CLIF-C ACLFs are useful scoring systems that provide accurate information on prognosis in patients with ACLF according to the CLIF-C definition, but not the AARC definition.