동아시아 국가의 에너지소비, GDP, 무역의상호 연관관계 분석

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between energy consumption, output and trade in east Asian countries (Korea, Japan, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore) from 1980 to 2010 using panel cointegration regression methods. The panel cointegration tests show the long run cointegrated relationships between output, labor, energy and exports and output, capital, labor, energy, imports. The short run dynamics show a bi-directional feedback relationship between energy consumption and output in equations with exports and there is Granger Causality from energy consumption to exports. The long run elasticities estimated from FMOLS shows that a 1% increase in energy consumption increases output by 0.093%~0.104%. The policy implication of these results is that energy and environmental policies to reduce energy consumption may cause the negative impacts on economic growth directly or through the exports indirectly in this region.