한국의 온실가스 증가요인 분석

Abstract

This paper conducted a long-term time series econometric analysis of Korea’s GHG emissions by FMOLS and VECM. GDP, heating and cooling degree days were considered as the main factors that increase the GHG emissions, and the proportion of non-fossil fuels and import price of crude oil as the factors that decrease the GHG emissions. The analysis focused on two aspects: gross GHG emissions and per capita GHG emissions. As regards total GHG emissions, GDP has the largest effect on gross GHG emissions. It is followed by heating and cooling days. Heating degree days affect GHG emissions in Korea more than cooling degree days do. The share of non-fossil fuels and the import price of crude oil have reducing effects on gross GHG emissions. As regards per capita GHG emissions, the analysis results have similar patterns. The largest effects on per capita GHG emissions are from GDP, followed by heating and cooling days.