Does debt market integration amplify the international transmission of business cycles during financial crises?

Abstract

The international transmission of real business cycles during financial crises differs dramatically depending on the type of debt market integration. Using a bilateral country pair dataset of 57 countries covering the period 2001-2013, we find robust empirical evidence that short-term debt integration drove business cycle synchronization during the global financial crisis (GFC) and European sovereign debt crisis. However, we also find that long-term debt integration cushioned the international transmission of business cycles during the crises. Our findings distinguish two transmission channels of financial shocks: the balance sheet effect through the integrated short-term debt market and risk-sharing through long-term debt market integration. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.