Overcoming Uncertainty in Novel Technologies: The Role of Venture Capital Syndication Networks in Artificial Intelligence (AI) Startup Investments in Korea and Japan

Abstract

This paper investigates how historical inter-firm syndication networks influence venture capitalists' (VCs) propensity to invest in startups pursuing novel, uncertain technologies, with a focus on artificial intelligence (AI). We theorize that VCs' positional attributes within cumulative syndication networks determine their access to external expertise and intelligence that aid AI investment decisions amidst informational opacity. Specifically, reachability to prior AI investors provides referrals and insights transmitted across short network paths to reduce ambiguity. Additionally, VC brokerage between disconnected industry clusters furnishes expansive, non-redundant information that is pivotal for discovering and assessing AI opportunities. Through hypotheses grounded in social network theory, we posit network-based mechanisms that equip VCs to navigate uncertainty when engaging with ambiguous innovations like AI. We test our framework, utilizing comprehensive historical records of global venture capital investments. Analyzing the location information of VC firms in this database, we uncovered a history of 14,751 investments made by Korean and Japanese firms. Using these data, we assembled an imbalanced panel dataset from 1984 to 2022 spanning 230 Korean and 413 Japanese VCs, with 4508 firm-year observations. Negative binomial regression analysis of this dataset reveals how historical relational patterns among venture capital firms foster readiness to evaluate unfamiliar innovations.