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Endogeneity of Return Parameters and Portfolio Selection: An Analysis on Implied Covariances

Authors
Park, KoohyunRhee, Thomas
Issue Date
Oct-2017
Publisher
WILEY
Keywords
Endogeneity of return parameters; Option implied covariance; Option implied volatility; Forward-looking volatility; Forward-looking covariance; Risk-neutral probability; Portfolio selection; Quadratic programming
Citation
ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL STUDIES, v.46, no.5, pp.760 - 789
Journal Title
ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
Volume
46
Number
5
Start Page
760
End Page
789
URI
https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/hongik/handle/2020.sw.hongik/5254
DOI
10.1111/ajfs.12187
ISSN
2041-9945
Abstract
The paper presents a method to measure forward-looking covariance risk for any two assets even when the explicit market for barter trades does not exist. We argue that the terms of trade in any barter exchanges also follow a martingale process with no arbitrage. We then compute various bivariate martingale probabilities for different assets to value all possible pseudo exchange options. This makes it possible for one to compute implied covariances embedded in the value of any exchange options as in Margrabe (1978). The paper also discusses how these recoverable implied return distribution parameters can impact portfolio choice.
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