자원기반 경제와 네덜란드 병: 몽골의 사례

Abstract

This paper studies whether symptoms of Dutch Disease have been present in the Mongolian economy recent years. First, a brief literature review on Dutch disease and the natural resource curse was given, and then symptoms of Dutch Disease in Mongolia were discussed. The following three hypotheses on Dutch disease were analysed. (1) Is deterioration in the non-mining tradable sector, such as manufacture industry, found? (2) Was the size of service industry expanded? How is the relative importance of service industry? How is the movement of labor force into service industry? (3) Is the overall wage growth in the economy detected? How is the wage increase relative to labor productivity growth?The results are mixed. The relative importance of manufacture industry in Mongolia was increased recently so that the first hypothesis was rejected. The size of service industry was expanded and some labor force movement into service industry were detected. The second hypothesis is weakly accepted. The overall wage increase was very high and higher the labor productivity growth, so that the third hypothesis is strongly accepted. The diagnosis of Dutch disease is difficult to be confirmed, even though Mongolia may be characterized by some symptoms.