The Effect of Neighborhood Disorder on Crime: A Spatial Analysis

Abstract

Macro-level criminological inquiries need to consider spatial dynamics of crime and its structural covariates or else analyses will not meet critical assumptions of traditional, econometric regression models. Notwithstanding the rising popularity of spatial analysis in neighborhood research, it has never been examined in the broken windows area linking neighborhood disorder and crime. Drawing on various official datasets of a midsized Midwestern city in the U.S., this study attempted to examine spatial dependence of crime and disorder across the city block groups. Results revealed that although robbery was strongly related to disorder, their relationship involved complex spatial interactions with other factors than the traditional structural covariates in the study model. It implied that a single dimensional crime control policy focusing on disorder might be less effective in controlling robbery than the broken windows theory contends. Another critical finding was that the spatial dynamics and causal paths of robbery and burglary were different from each other, which suggested that crime research and policy needs a more crime-specific approach.