퍼지 의사결정 방법론을 이용한 한미 · 한중 FTA가 산업 및 고용에 미치는 효과 비교

Abstract

This study analyzed the industrial production and labor effect of the Korea-US FTA and Korea-China FTA based on expert opinion survey. The Fuzzy Decision-Making Method was primarily used in the opinion survey. There were three findings. First, the study showed that in the case of the Korea-US FTA, Korean industries advantageous in the aspect of industrial production included automobile, auto parts, textile and clothing while the service industries such as legal, accounting, medical care,telecom, finance and education were found to be at a disadvantage. In particular, industries like pharmaceuticals, agriculture, forestry & fishery and livestock were found to be at a huge disadvantage. Second, if a Korea-China FTA is concluded, Korea will have the upper hand in the automobile, auto parts, and textile and clothing industries in terms of industrial production. However, there exists an underlying possibility that production increase may not lead to effective job creation as productions facilities may relocate to China with relatively lower labor cost. Industries found to be in a weaker position based on the conclusion of a Korea-China FTA were agriculture, forestry & fishery, mining,wooden furniture and processed foods, and such industries were found unlikely to see creation of jobs. Third, when comparing the FTA with the US and China, there are slightly more positives in terms of industrial production in the latter case. If comparing the average fuzzy score of the manufacturing industry, the outcome of a Korea-China FTA is much larger than the Korea-US FTA. However, based on the score for certainty in judgment, a FTA between Korea and China scored lower which shows the lack of information of interested parties regarding the conclusion of a Korea-China FTA.