Brownian agent-based technology forecasting
- Authors
- Shin, J[Shin, Juneseuk]; Park, Y[Park, Yongtae]
- Issue Date
- Oct-2009
- Publisher
- ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
- Keywords
- Brownian agent; Technology forecasting; Intermediate complexity; Simulation; Software industry
- Citation
- TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, v.76, no.8, pp.1078 - 1091
- Indexed
- SCIE
SCOPUS
- Journal Title
- TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
- Volume
- 76
- Number
- 8
- Start Page
- 1078
- End Page
- 1091
- URI
- https://scholarworks.bwise.kr/skku/handle/2021.sw.skku/76811
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.techfore.2009.04.001
- ISSN
- 0040-1625
- Abstract
- Today's innovation process is best characterized by nonlinearity and interaction. Agent-based models build on these concepts, but have not been useful in practice because they are either too complex or too simple to make a good match with reality. As a remedy, we employ a Brownian agent model with intermediate complexity to produce value-added technology forecasting. As an illustration with Korea's software industry data, computer simulation is carried out. Attracted by higher technology value, agents concentrate on specific technology regions, and form co-existing major technology regions of high density. A rough comparison with actual software production data exhibits a fair reflection of reality, and supports the underlying idea that economic motivation of agents should be considered. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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- Appears in
Collections - Engineering > Department of Systems Management Engineering > 1. Journal Articles
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