백제와 신라의 동맹 선택: 균형동맹인가 편승동맹인가?

Abstract

Mid-and small-sized countries have to choose between balancing and bandwagoningfor national survival when faced with a dominant threat, which has long been an objectof controversy in the IR field. When Stephen Walt's balancing dominance theory isapplied to alliance formations of two ancient Korean kingdoms, Baekje and Silla, whowere relatively weaker than their neighbors, during the period between 3rd-7th centuriesin Northeast Asia, the empirical investigation attested favorably for Walt that balancingoutnumbered bandwagoning, except a few instances. The cases seem to prove that evenweaker states prefer balancing to bandwagoning because the latter does not effectivelyguarantee security of the weaker state. This conclusion could carry useful policyimplications for the 21st century in East Asia. As in the case of ancient Northeast Asia,Korea or other countries in the region may choose balancing against a rising China. Yetfurther analyses of alliance patterns in different time periods in the region wouldprovide a more accurate picture for the future. In addition, as Baekje’s example shows,for a middle-power state like Korea surrounded by powerful states to exert moreinfluence than its actual capability permits, it may be valuable to build a robustmaritime diplomatic network under certain circumstances.