동아시아 자유무역협정(EAFTA) 모델 연구: 한ㆍ중ㆍ일 중심으로

Abstract

This study intends to draw a model of East Asian Free Trade Arrangement(EAFTA) in terms of the trend of East Asian FTAs and several economic indexes. This expertise includes four kinds of model: Wild geese flying pattern(model 1), China-oriented FTA(model 2), Northeast Asian FTA+Southeast Asian FTA(model 3), 'Korea, China, Japan+ASEAN' FTA(model 4). It is very difficult to say what kind of model will develop into EAFTA among the above models. And it cannot be said which country will lead the process of EAFTA. China reached China-ASEAN FTA with ASEAN members and Japan has been reaching FTA with ASEAN countries separately. But it cannot be said yet that China or Japan stands as a leader of EAFTA. From the point of the leading capacity of EAFTA, Japan is a little superior now, but China is overtaking Japan with rapidity. EAFTA will be gradually reached through the formation and enlargement of medium-size FTA rather than through the leadership of one country. Southeast FTA has been concluded by ASEAN, but Northeast FTA has not reached yet because of a passive policy of Japan. It is expected that Korea, China, Japan+ASEAN model(model 4) will be formed in the near future. But it will be necessary that some larger benefit plans like the enlargement of members should be made in order to make model 4 develop into EAFTA.