On the models for the distribution of examination score for projecting the demand for Korean Long-Term Care InsuranceOn the models for the distribution of examination score for projecting the demand for Korean Long-Term Care Insurance
- Other Titles
- On the models for the distribution of examination score for projecting the demand for Korean Long-Term Care Insurance
- Authors
- 권혁성; Sophia Nicole Javal
- Issue Date
- Jul-2021
- Publisher
- 한국통계학회
- Keywords
- demand; grading system; long-term care insurance; mixture distributions; projection; simulation
- Citation
- Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods, v.28, no.4, pp.393 - 409
- Journal Title
- Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
- Volume
- 28
- Number
- 4
- Start Page
- 393
- End Page
- 409
- URI
- http://scholarworks.bwise.kr/ssu/handle/2018.sw.ssu/41051
- DOI
- 10.29220/CSAM.2021.28.4.393
- ISSN
- 2287-7843
- Abstract
- The Korean Long-Term Care Insurance (K-LTCI) provides financial support for long-term care service to people who need various types of assistance with daily activities. As the number of elderly people in Korea is expected to increase in the future, the demand for long-term care insurance would also increase over time. Projection of future expenditure on K-LTCI depends on the number of beneficiaries within the grading system of K-LTCI based on the test scores of applicants. This study investigated the suitability of mixture distributions to the model K-LTCI score distribution using recent empirical data on K-LTCI, provided by the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS). Based on the developed mixture models, the number of beneficiaries in each grade and its variability under the current grading system were estimated by simulation. It was observed that a mixture model is suitable for K-LTCI score distribution and may prove useful in devising a funding plan for K-LTCI benefit payment and investigating the effects of any possible revision in the K-LTCI grading system.
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