Proportion of Pre-Symptomatic Transmission Events Associated with COVID-19 in South Korea

Abstract

Pre-symptomatic transmission potentially reduces the effectiveness of symptom-onset-based containment and control strategies for the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Despite evidence from multiple settings, the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission varies among countries. To estimate the extent of pre-symptomatic transmission in South Korea, we used individual-level COVID-19 case records from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency and Central Disease Control Headquarters. We inferred the probability of symptom onset per day since infection based on the density distribution of the incubation period to stratify the serial interval distribution in Period 1 (20 January-10 February 2020) and Period 2 (25 July-4 December 2021), without and with expanded testing or implementation of social distancing strategies, respectively. Assuming both no correlation as well as positive and negative correlations between the incubation period and the serial interval, we estimated the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission in South Korea as 43.5% (accounting for correlation, range: 9.9-45.4%) and 60.0% (56.2-64.1%) without and with expanded testing, respectively, during the Delta variant's predominance. This study highlights the importance of considering pre-symptomatic transmission for COVID-19 containment and mitigation strategies because pre-symptomatic transmission may play a key role in the epidemiology of COVID-19.