인구구조의 변화를 반영한 건강보험 진료비 추계A Financial Projection of Health Insurance Expenditures Reflecting Changes in Demographic Structure
- Other Titles
- A Financial Projection of Health Insurance Expenditures Reflecting Changes in Demographic Structure
- Authors
- 이창수; 채정미; 권혁성
- Issue Date
- Apr-2017
- Publisher
- 한국보건간호학회
- Keywords
- 진료비; 인구고령화; 선형모형; 건강보험; 보장성강화정책; Health care costs; Demographic aging; Linear models; Health insurance; Health policy
- Citation
- 한국보건간호학회지, v.31, no.1, pp.5 - 18
- Journal Title
- 한국보건간호학회지
- Volume
- 31
- Number
- 1
- Start Page
- 5
- End Page
- 18
- URI
- http://scholarworks.bwise.kr/ssu/handle/2018.sw.ssu/6762
- ISSN
- 1226-0290
- Abstract
- Purpose: This study was conducted to suggest a method for financial projection of health insurance expenditures that reflects future changes in demographic structure. Methods: Using data associated with the number of patients and health insurance cost per patient, generalized linear models (GLM) were fitted with demographic explanatory variables. Models were constructed separately for individual medical departments, types of medical service, and types of public health insurance. Goodness-of-fit of most of the applied GLM models was quite satisfactory. By combining estimates of frequency and severity from the constructed models and results of the population projection, total annual health insurance expenditures were projected through year 2060. Results: Expenditures for medical departments associated with diseases that are more frequent in elderly peoples are expected to increase steeply, leading to considerable increases in overall health insurance expenditures. The suggested method can contribute to improvement of the accuracy of financial projection. Conclusion: The overall demands for medical service, medical personnel, and relevant facilities in the future are expected to increase as the proportion of elderly people increases. Application of a more reasonable estimation method reflecting changes in demographic structure will help develop health policies relevant to above mentioned resources.
- Files in This Item
-
Go to Link
- Appears in
Collections - College of Natural Sciences > ETC > 1. Journal Articles
Items in ScholarWorks are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.