North Korea’s Nuclear Ambition: Is Nuclear Reversal Too Late?

Abstract

North Korea continues to provoke nuclear crises despite international pressure. This study identifies North Korea’s motives and thereby a policy to induce North Korea to forgo existing nuclear weapons and programs. I synthesize the literature and theory of nuclear abstinence and proliferation, assess which policy drivers led Pyongyang to persist in seeking nuclear capability in the post-Cold War era, and conclude that security issues underlie and overshadow other motivations. The cases of nuclear reversal show that coercion and isolation did not work and security guarantees by the involved parties thereby removing threat perception worked the best. For denuclearization of North Korea, the past experiences need to be carefully contemplated.