Qualitative Effects of Monovalent Vaccination Against Rotavirus: A Comparison of North America and South America

Abstract

Rotavirus is the most common cause of severe gastroenteritis in young children worldwide. The introduction of vaccination programs has led to a significant reduction in number of hospitalizations due to rotavirus in North and South American countries. Little work has been done, however, to examine the differential impact of vaccination as a function of strain distribution and strain-specific vaccine efficacy. We developed a two-strain epidemiological model of rotavirus transmission, and used it to examine the effects of a monovalent vaccine (Rotarix) on the qualitative behaviors of infection levels in a population. For contrast, we parameterized our model with strain distribution data from North America and from South America. In all cases, the introduction of the vaccine led to significant decreases in the prevalence of primary infection due to both strains for a decade or more, after which the overall prevalence recovers to near pre-vaccination levels. The prevalence of G1P[8] is significantly higher in North America (73 % of all rotavirus infections) compared to that in South America (34 %). Our model predicts that the introduction of Rotarix might result in major strain replacement in regions such as North America where the prevalence of G1P[8] is relatively high, due to higher efficacy of Rotarix against infection caused by G1P[8], while regions with lower prevalence of G1P[8], such as South America, are not susceptible to major strain replacement.