Statistical evaluation on storm sewer design criteria under climate change in Seoul, South Korea

Abstract

This study conducted statistical analysis under both stationary and non-stationary climate using rainfall data measured in Seoul, South Korea. The 50 year annual maximum rainfall data were analysed with generalised extreme value distribution and Gumbel distribution. Possible rainfall changes were predicted with nonstationary forms of the two distributions, considering time variable location parameters. The current storm sewer design criteria were assessed by reflecting climate change implications and expected lifetime performance. Expected return periods were reduced to 4.67, 8.66, 19.16 and 23.53 years for the current 10 min - 5, 10, 30 and 50 years. The newly suggested design criteria of 5, 10, 30 and 50 yr return period storm events were 5.3, 12, 48 and 107 years for the 10 min duration for a 50 year lifetime expectancy.