Modeling the level of contamination of Staphylococcus aureus in ready-to-eat kimbab in Korea

Abstract

The risk of Staphylococcus aureus in ready-to-eat kimbab (rice rolled in laver) sold in Korea was evaluated by a mathematical modeling approach. Four nodes were constructed from preparation at retail to consumption. A predictive microbial growth model and survey data were combined with probabilistic modeling to simulate the level of S. aureus in a single kimbab at the time of consumption. We estimated the mean level of S. aureus to be 2.92 log CFU/g for a typical kimbab (150 to 200 g each) at the time of consumption. Our model also showed that 29.73% of the kimbabs had >= 100,000 S. aureus CFU/g, which poses some risk of illness, since some level of enterotoxin would be expected from toxigenic strains. However, because of the lack of dose-response models for staphylococcal enterotoxin, the final level of S. aureus in the kimbabs could not be used to estimate how many people would become ill from eating them. Correlation sensitivity results showed that consumer eating. patterns and initial contamination levels at retail stores were the most significant risk factors for illness and that temperature control under 10 degrees C was a critical control point in kimbab retail establishments to prevent the growth of S. aureus.