시계열분석을 이용한 제주도 레저스포츠 관광객의 수요예측분석

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to forecast demand for leisure sports tourists in Jejudo Island. Data from January 2004 to September 2011 were analyzed by using the time series technique. Diagnose was performed model identification-parameter estimation-model fitting, which are the basic procedure of establishing ARIMA model. As a result of carrying out the de-seasonalized first-order difference value and the seasonal first-order difference value in the phase of model identification, the mean of the original data was indicated to show the normal distribution. In the phase of parameter estimation, ARIMA(0, 1, 2)(0, 1, 1)12 model was estimated. As a result of carrying out residual test in order to diagnose model fitting, the result called what white noise is independent was elicited. In consequence of forecasting the demand for leisure sports tourists in Jejudo Island based on these results, the conclusion was obtained as saying that the demand for leisure sports tourists in Jejudo Island grows from October to February and gradually reduces from March. Also, it was indicated to be reduced even from June to September that is the sightseeing season.