복지국가의 사회복지비 지출 변화(1982∼1992)에 관한 실증적 연구 : Fuller-Battese Model을 이용한 분석

Abstract

This paper examines the changes (1982∼1992) of social welfare expenditures of 12 welfare states. This paper focuses on two questions. First, to what extent have there been changes in social welfare expenditure (total social welfare expenditures, income support expenditures, social service expenditures) of 12 welfare states? Second, what are the causes of the changes in social welfare expenditures? Using Comparative Welfare States Data Set by Stephens(1997) and Social Expenditure Database by OECD (1999), this paper attempts to answer two questions. Fuller-Battese model, a data analysis method in pooled cross-sectional time-series analysis, is adopted to identify variables predicting social welfare expenditure changes. This paper analyzes the predictors separately according to the types of welfare states by Esping-Andersen (1990). Predictors are different by the types of welfare states; thus, economic variables such as GDP and financial deficiency have effects on social welfare expenditures of Liberal and Corporatist welfare states. while they have no effects in Social Democratic welfare states. Political variables has effects on social welfare expenditures of Corporatist welfare states, not of Liberal and Social Democratic welfare states. Demographic variables has effects on social welfare expenditures of Social Democratic welfare states rather than Liberal and Corporatist welfare states. This paper provides an additional knowledge about social welfare expenditure changes of 12 welfare states and discusses implications for the development of welfare state in Korea.