서울시 주택시장에 대한 스톡-플로우 모형의 적용

Abstract

This paper aims to apply stock-flow model to the housing market in Seoul to analyze the dynamics of the market. For this study, we establish stock-flow model and selected related variables based on the close examination of previous literatures. The findings of this study are that housing stock per employement and the interest rate of housing finance among independant variables have negative correlation to housing price index in Price model. Among independant variables, the interest rate of construction finance has negative correlation and land price index has positive correaltion to housing permission in Permission model. Through Stock equation, we found the annual average depreciation of housing and the relation between the housing permission and housing construction in Seoul. This research shows how to apply the stock-flow model to the housing market in Seoul and suggests that the intentional decrease of interest rate of housing finance causes housing price to increase unintended. Thus, we need to study the influence of the interest rate on the house financing and market. Furthermore, this study indicates that the increase of land price index of previous year might be the positive signal for the development companies. Finally, we recognize that this model requires the sophisticated data of housing market in Seoul.