PRIDE AND PREJUDICE - THE ECONOMIC-IMPACTS OF GROWTH CONTROLS IN PASADENA

Abstract

Whereas most debates about growth controls have focused primarily on the impacts of land and house prices, this study examines anticipated job and output losses. Using, the example of the proposed nonresidential and residential controls approved by the voters of Pasadena, California, as a case study, the authors employ a spatial allocation/regional input-output model (the Southern California Planning Model) that allocates highly disaggregated sectoral impacts (direct, indirect, and induced) to 219 zones (cities and unincorporated areas) in the Los Angeles metropolitan region. The largest economic losses are the result of denied nonresidential construction, and these are cumulative over the ten years of the proposed ordinance (now defunct after the 1992 elections). The lowest-skilled occupational groups are the hardest hit in terms of lost jobs, and almost three fifths of the employment losses occur in the city of Pasadena itself. These results offset the favorable claims for growth controls made by their advocates.