국내 중신용자 대출시장의 현황과 정책적 시사점

Abstract

최근 정부는 중간 수준의 신용도를 가진 금융 소비자의 대출수요에 비해 제공되는 여신 규모가 작다는 판단 하에 중금리 대출 활성화 정책을 추구해 오고 있으나 고신용군보다 대출 금리가 급격히 높아지는 소위 금리 단층 현상은 여전히 나타나고 있는 것으로 알려져 있다. 본 연구는 실제 개인신용대출 표본 자료를 바탕으로 군집분석, 로짓분석 등을 수행하여 중신용자 대출시장 현황을 파악하고 관련 정책적 시사점을 제시하고자 한다. 먼저 군집분석 결과 소득, 대출잔액 크기, 연령 등의 요인에 따라 네 개의 군집으로 분류된 것으로 나타난다. 다음으로 등급별 금리와 부도율 간 관계를 살펴본 결과 중신용자들이 실제 부도율에 비해 높은 금리로 대출을 받고 있는 것으로 추정할 수 있었다. 로짓분석 결과 대출금리, 신용등급(또는 신용점수)과 부도율이 정(+)(또는 부(-))의 관계로 나타났고, 총부채상환비율(DTI)(+), 신용대출보유기관수(+), 연령대(-) 변수는 신용등급에 관계없이 부도율에 영향을 주는 주요한 요인임을 확인할 수 있었다. 비선형관계의 존재 여부를 고려하여 신용도 지표의 제곱항을 포함시키고 중신용자에 대한 더미변수를 생성하여 분석한 결과도 앞서와 유사한 결과가 유지됨을 알 수 있었다. 마지막으로 등급별 대출단위당 금융기관의 기대수익을 살펴본 결과 신용등급에 따라 역 U모양으로 나타나서 금융기관이 중신용자에 대해 상대적으로 과도한 수익을 얻고 있을 가능성도 배제하기 어려운 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 향후 보다 정밀한 신용평가 모형의 개발 등을 통해 중신용자 대상 부도율을 정확하게 고려하여 중신용자 관련 여신 규모를 현재보다는 적정한 수준으로 늘릴 필요가 있음을 시사한다.

Recently, the Korean government has been pursuing a policy to revitalize medium-interested loans, estimating that current personal consumer loans are smaller than loan demands of financial consumers with moderate credit ratings. This is because the breakdown of interest rate structure occurs. In other words, high-credit scored consumers have low borrowing interest rates of less than 4% and mid/low-credit scored consumers have a high borrowing interest rate of more than 20%. Despite these policy efforts by the government, the breakdown of the interest rate structure has remained almost the same until recently. The purpose of this study is to contribute academically and policy-wise to the field of research of personal consumer loans by conducting various empirical analyzes based on the characteristics of medium-rated creditors and non-public data sample-driven from the whole personal consumer loans. In particular, we perform clustering analysis through sampling based on the entire data of personal consumer loans, and then, first of all, identify characteristics of middle-credit scored borrowers and other borrowers. This study grasps the current status of the medium-credited consumer loan market and presents relevant policy implications by conducting cluster analysis and logit analysis based on actual personal consumer loan sample data. First, the cluster analysis shows that four clusters are classified according to factors such as income, size of the total loan amount, and age. Next, as a result of examining the relationship between the interest rate and default rate by credit ratings, it was found that medium-credited consumers are getting loans with higher interest rates than actual their estimated default rates. The logit regression analysis showed that the loan interest rate, the credit rating (or credit score), and the default rate were positive (or negative). Specifically, it was confirmed that regardless of the credit ratings of borrowers, total debt to income ratio (DTI), card loan dummy, and loan balance variables are major factors affecting the default rates. In addition, considering the existence of non-linear relationships, the results of the analysis including the squared term of the credit indicators (credit scores and credit ratings) and the dummy variable for the medium-rated creditors were found to be similar as mentioned previously. In particular, it can be interpreted that the medium-rated creditors lower the default rate significantly because of the negative relationship between the medium-rated creditor dummy and the default rate. Finally, as a result of estimating the expected profits of financial institutions per lending unit by credit ratings, it is difficult to exclude the possibility that financial institutions are getting relatively excessive profits from the medium-rated creditors compared to other groups of borrowers. These results suggest that it is necessary to increase the medium-rated consumer loan size to an appropriate level rather than the present through accurately assessing the default rate for medium-rated consumers by developing a more accurate credit rating model for them.