건설기업의 생존예측모형

Abstract

Under the current competitive business environment in the construction industry, the probability of the contractor's bankruptcy has been growing higher. The firm's management requires a quantitative predicting tool that could measure the degree of insolvency and survival time.This study proposes a survival predicting model for contractors, utilizing the survival analysis that is a statistical tool developed for the estimation of the patient's survival time in medicine. The survival analysis methodology is regraded as an alternative to overcome the shortcomings of the binary predicting model using regression analysis for the predicting the contractor's bankruptcy.The usefulness of the proposed model was validated through the comparison with the logistic regression model. The predicting performance of the each model shows that the logistic model appears to perform well in the firm's bankruptcy and the survival model does well in the firm's soundness.