서울시 도시재생사업이 주변지역 주택가격에 미치는 영향 : 이중차분법을 활용하여

Abstract

본 연구는, 도시재생사업이 도시재생사업지역 및 인근 지역의 주택가격에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 확인하고자 한다. 이를 위해, 서울시 4개 도시재생사업지역을 선정하여, 사업지정 전후의 부동산가격이 상승했는지를 이중차분법을 활용해서 검증하고자 한다. 이를 위해, 도시재생사업지역으로 선정된 날짜를 기준으로 도시재생사업지역 선정 이후에 도시재생사업지역과 인근지역(500m 이내)의 주택가격이 각각 어떻게 변화했는지를 2011-2019년 주택실거래가를 통해 알아보고자 한다. 본 연구를통해 나타난 결과는 향후, 도시재생사업의 정책적 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

The paradigm for urban development has shifted from urban redevelopment to urban regeneration. This study analyzes how urban regeneration projects affect housing prices of surrounding areas. For this we use a difference-in-differences model with real housing price data. Particularly, we focus on four urban regeneration projects in Changsin-Sungin, Haebangchon, Changdong-Sanggye, and Garibong areas in Seoul that were announced between 2014 and 2016. Our empirical findings show that announcement of these projects did not increase housing prices in the designated sites, but rather in the surrounding control areas. However, the effects of these projects on housing prices differs housing types such as apartment and non-apartment. In addition, the effects differ by regions: urban regeneration does (does not) increase housing prices in economic-oriented (residential-oriented) urban regeneration project sites such as Changdong-Sanggye (Changsin-Sungin, Haebangchon, and Garibong). Our results suggest that urban regeneration projects should be carefully designed by project types and site characteristics. If these projects increase housing prices, it can be a problem. However, sometimes, if these projects do not increase housing prices, it can also be a problem because unchanged housing prices mean that there is nothing to be attractive in the region.