A Study on the Prediction Model for International Trade Payment Using Logistic Regression

Abstract

Purpose – Although remittance payment in international trade settlements has played a bigger role in recent years, scant research is being done. This study is to zero in on analyzing determinants of international trade payments focused on remittance by constructing a payment prediction model. Design/methodology – This study categorizes the types of trade payments into advance remittance, post remittance, linked remittance, letter of credit, and mixed payment, and analyzes these after constructing a logit model. For empirical analysis, 147 survey data were collected for export manufacturers in Korea, and binominal logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the type of payment method the exporter chooses for trade transactions. Findings – The likelihood of choosing advance remittance increased as the exporters had non recovery experiences with payments, and decreased as the market power of importers increased. The possibility of post remittance increased when the export amount was large and the character of the buyer was reliable. In the case of linked remittance, it was highly likely to be selected when payment efficiency was important in trade settlement. In addition, when competition among companies in the global market is intense and market uncertainty is high, the possibility of using a letter of credit decreases. It was also found that the greater the export amount, the greater the possibility of choosing advance remittance, and even if the transaction period was longer, exporters using a letter of credit continued to use it. Originality/value – Despite the high proportion of remittances in international trade settlements, it has been hard to find studies that reflect the practical characteristics of remittances. This study classified the types of remittance into advance remittance, post remittance, and linked remittance, and built a trade payment prediction model by adding a letter of credit and mixed payment. In addition, the originality of this study is recognized in that a logistic model was constructed and meaningful results were derived.