Nonlinear impacts of political and religious factors on COVID-19 vaccination

Abstract

We investigate whether COVID-19 vaccination is monotonically associated with political and religious orientations. Conspiracy theories among politically conservative groups and Evangelical Protestants have drawn considerable attention to COVID-19 vaccination. Previous research indicates that political and religious orientations can have either positive or negative effects on vaccination. We employ non-linear regression with data on Republican turnout and Protestantism in over 2,000 US counties. Our findings reveal that the relationships between COVID-19 vaccination and Republican and Evangelical Protestant inclinations follow an inverted-U shape. Furthermore, Protestant inclination has a less negative impact on COVID-19 vaccination when infection rates are high. For vaccination promotion, targeting segmented groups is preferable to solely targeting based on political and religious affiliations. © 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.