주택가격변동이 국내은행의 수익성 및 재무건전성에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of housing price and deviation on ROA(Return on Asset) and NPL(Non-Performing Loan) of domestic commercial banks by using quarterly financial data of domestic commercial banks, housing price, and macro variables. This study finds that, first, according to DOLS(Dynamic Ordinary Least Square) model estimations, there is a long-term correlation between housing price and household debt. Second, housing price has a positive effect on ROA of domestic banks while it has negative effect on NPL. Notably, the impact of housing price on ROA is consistently positive, meaning that household debt sensitively responds to housing price. Third, deviation has a positive effect on NPL. This result represents the negative effect on the financial stability of a bank increases when the deviation is greater. Therefore, the study suggests that domestic banks should carefully examine the change of housing price in the financial supervision and screening policy of loans.